Downstream restocking willingness increases as SHFE tin prices maintain a fluctuating downward trend [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Morning Tin News on June 3, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) remained in the doldrums during the night session, with the price midpoint shifting down to around 250,000 yuan/mt, indicating overall weakness.

Macro: (1) Indian Government: Eligible companies can import EVs at a 15% preferential tariff (bullish ★). (2) BYD Auto: New energy vehicle sales in May reached 382,500 units, up from 331,800 units YoY; cumulative sales for the year totaled 1.7634 million units, up from 1.2713 million units YoY, representing a cumulative YoY increase of 38.7% (bullish ★). (3) According to Nikkei: SoftBank, Intel, and other companies will jointly develop high-capacity memory for AI chips (bullish ★). (4) ① European and US trade officials will meet on Wednesday, with the EU reiterating warnings of tariff retaliation. ② Foreign media: Seeking to expedite negotiations, Trump demands countries submit their "best offers" by Wednesday. ③ The Trump administration appeals the US District Court for the District of Columbia's ruling that its tariff policy is "unlawful". ④ Japanese Prime Minister: No intention to make concessions on US tariff issues (neutral).

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in major production areas such as Yunnan is tightening, with some smelters potentially halting production for maintenance to address raw material shortages (bullish ★). (2) Demand side: After the Labour Day holiday, some downstream processing enterprises gradually resumed operations, releasing some demand for restocking at lower prices, but high-price transactions remained sluggish (bearish ★).

Spot Market: Price declines stimulate restocking. Trading was sluggish early last week, with smelters maintaining firm quotes but actual transactions scarce. Downstream caution: End-users engaged in just-in-time procurement only, with traders reporting "few spot purchases at current prices, with back-to-back pricing preferred". Restocking demand was released after the price decline (May 29): Lower prices stimulated demand after tin prices fell below 260,000 yuan/mt, with some end-users making just-in-time procurements and traders achieving over 100 mt in single-day transactions (compared to a daily average of approximately 20-30 mt previously).